Russia tightens grip on global fertiliser markets amid Middle East conflict

Russia's influence over global fertiliser markets has grown stronger since the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Prices have surged, and Moscow now holds even greater leverage over agricultural supplies. The country is also benefiting financially from higher oil revenues linked to the war. The US-Israel conflict with Iran has sent fertiliser costs soaring. Middle East urea prices have jumped 44%, reaching over $670 per tonne. Russia, a major producer, has capitalised on this spike, reinforcing its dominance in the sector.

Russia's position in fertiliser trade now surpasses its influence in oil and gas. The government has already used exports as a political tool, temporarily halting ammonium nitrate shipments to support domestic producers. Hungary has even urged Brussels to relax restrictions on Russian fertilisers, highlighting Europe's reliance on these supplies. Meanwhile, Moscow's oil revenues have climbed due to the war. Estimates suggest an extra $150 million flows into state coffers daily from oil sales alone. Despite boosting production, Russia has struggled to fully replace disrupted Middle Eastern volumes. The US, however, has softened its stance by easing sanctions on some Belarusian fertiliser firms. Analysts warn that Russia's advantage in agriculture could grow in the medium term. With sanctions pressure mounting, fertilisers may become another bargaining chip against Western restrictions.

The war's economic ripple effects have strengthened Russia's hand in key markets. Higher fertiliser prices and oil revenues provide both financial gains and political leverage. How long this advantage lasts will depend on global supply shifts and further policy moves.