Meta bets on prediction markets with new standalone app Arena

Meta is revisiting prediction markets with a new app called Arena. The company sees growing interest in platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, which allow users to bet on real-world events. This time, Meta hopes the concept has become mainstream enough to succeed. In 2020, Meta attempted a similar idea with Forecast, but the app struggled to gain traction. A persistent challenge has been convincing users to discover and download new standalone apps. Despite this, CEO Mark Zuckerberg has now assigned an internal team to develop Arena as a separate smartphone app, distinct from Meta’s social media platforms.

Arena will operate on a points-based system at launch, avoiding the regulatory complexities of real-money betting. The app takes inspiration from Polymarket and Kalshi, where users wager on outcomes like sports or politics. Meta’s vast user base of 3.56 billion daily users could provide a significant advantage in driving adoption. Arena represents Meta’s latest effort to enter the prediction markets space. By avoiding real-money wagering initially, the company sidesteps some legal obstacles. The success of rivals suggests there is demand, but Meta’s past struggles with standalone apps remain a hurdle.