Mexico's Oil States Face Years of Economic Decline Amid National Growth

Two of Mexico’s key oil-producing states are facing prolonged economic struggles. Campeche and Tabasco, which together accounted for 3.3% of the country’s GDP in 2025, have seen sharp declines in recent years. Their recovery now lags behind the national average, with further contractions expected in the near term. Campeche’s economy surged by 7.4% in 2023, driven by heavy public spending on the Maya Train infrastructure project. But the boom proved short-lived. In 2025, its GDP shrank by 13.6%, the steepest drop among Mexican states. Forecasts suggest another 3.4% decline in 2026, followed by a further 2.1% contraction in 2027.

Tabasco has also struggled, with its GDP falling by 5% in 2025. A modest rebound of just 0.1% is expected in 2026, before growth picks up slightly to 2% in 2027. Together, the two states will remain the weakest performers in 2026, even as Mexico’s overall economy grows by 1.3% that year and 1.8% in 2027. Analysts point to several factors behind the uneven recovery. Differences in states’ industrial bases, their links to global trade, and their ability to draw investment will shape outcomes. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, potential renegotiations of the USMCA trade deal, and domestic political uncertainty could further dampen investment and slow growth.

The outlook for Campeche and Tabasco remains bleak compared to national trends. While Mexico’s economy is set to expand modestly, these states will continue to shrink or stagnate through 2027. Their struggles highlight how regional disparities and external risks are reshaping the country’s economic landscape.