Kazakhstan's oil production plummets as global supply crisis deepens in 2026

Kazakhstan’s oil output has dropped in early 2026, reflecting wider global supply challenges. The country produced 19.7 million tons of oil and gas condensate from January to March—just 80.2% of the same period last year. Meanwhile, worldwide oil supply fell sharply in April as Middle East disruptions tightened the market. Global oil production declined by 1.8 million barrels per day in April, reaching 95.1 million barrels per day. The drop came after unrest in the Middle East cut supplies. Higher exports from the US, Kazakhstan, Russia and Venezuela helped ease some of the shortfall, but the market remains under pressure.

Demand is also weakening, with forecasts showing a 420,000-barrel daily decline in 2026. The steepest drop is expected in the second quarter, hitting petrochemical and aviation sectors hardest. Stockpiles are shrinking at a record pace, leaving the market in deficit until late 2026.

Kazakhstan’s exports fell to 15.3 million tons in the first three months of 2026—78.5% of last year’s figure. The country plans to develop new hydrocarbon fields to stabilise production and exports. However, scheduled maintenance at Kashagan and Karachaganak this year may temporarily reduce output.

Analysts warn of further price swings as summer demand peaks. Tight supplies and unpredictable geopolitical risks are likely to keep volatility high. Kazakhstan is pushing to secure its energy future by expanding its gas and oil fields. Yet, with maintenance work ahead and global demand weakening, production levels face ongoing uncertainty. The oil market’s tight balance and shrinking reserves suggest price fluctuations will continue through 2026.