EU arms exports to Mexico plummet after mid-2010s peak

Arms exports from the EU to Mexico have slowed significantly in recent years. The decline follows a period of high sales, with license values peaking in 2015 and 2016. Now, as a modernised trade agreement between Mexico and the EU takes effect, defence equipment sales remain at a near standstill. Between 2015 and 2016, the EU granted Mexico military licenses worth €2.775 billion and €2.551 billion—unprecedented figures at the time. But since 2017, the value of these licenses has steadily dropped, falling to €354 million by 2024. The number of licenses issued also declined, from 132 in 2015 to just 46 in 2024.

The slowdown aligns with a period of deadlock that began in April 2018. Actual export values have varied, ranging from €8 million in 2021 to €26 million in 2024. Despite the overall decline, 11 European countries still issued licenses to Mexico in 2024, with Italy granting the highest number and France leading in total value.

Spain’s exports to Mexico included explosives, detonators, and over 10 million shotgun shells. Italy supplied weapons of various calibres, fire-control systems, military aircraft, and production technology. Meanwhile, Sweden ranked Mexico as the 30th largest recipient of its military hardware between 1994 and 2025. The modernised EU-Mexico trade agreement arrives as defence exports remain weak. Licenses and shipments have both fallen sharply since their mid-2010s peak. For now, the trend shows no signs of reversing, with 2024 figures continuing the downward pattern.