Canada's oil boom hits record 5.19M barrels daily in 2026

Canada's oil industry is seeing a major boost in early 2026. Production has climbed to a record 5.19 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025, with exports expanding beyond North America for the first time in years. Rising global prices and new infrastructure are set to bring billions in extra revenue to Canadian firms.

The country's oil sector has long faced challenges in selling crude at full value. Over 90% of its output goes to the US, often at a discount due to limited pipeline space and refining needs. But the completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline in 2024 changed this, allowing producers to ship more oil to Asia.

Prices have surged further since the start of the Iran conflict, creating a windfall opportunity. Analysts estimate Canadian firms could earn an extra C$90bn ($65.6bn) if crude stays at current levels. Even smaller price jumps would bring significant gains—for every $10 increase, revenues could rise by C$25-C$30bn. The industry's growth has pushed share prices near decade highs. The four largest producers have seen their stock values climb by 40% or more since January 2026. Yet pipeline limits still restrict how much Canada can export beyond North America. François Poirier, CEO of TC Energy, argues that new pipelines would help Canada respond to global crises and strengthen energy security. Expanding export capacity by 1.5 million barrels per day could add an average of C$31.4bn to Canada's GDP each year over the next decade.

Canada remains the world's fourth-largest oil producer, with plans to grow fossil fuel exports further. The recent price surge and pipeline expansion have opened new markets, but infrastructure constraints still limit full potential. If current trends hold, the sector could see years of record profits and economic impact.